Firearm Injury | ISSUES | The Ohio State University

Modeling Firearm Injury Risk Using Spatial Random Forests

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Our presentation, Modeling Firearm Injury Risk Using Spatial Random Forests, will be delivered by Dr. Gia Barboza-Salerno at the Women in Statistics and Data Science on November 12, 2025 in Cincinnati, OH.

This study introduces a spatial machine learning framework for predicting firearm injury risk across Chicago census tracts. Using Spatial Random Forest Modeling (SRFM), we integrate social, built, and natural environment indicators, such as social vulnerability, housing burden, green space, traffic volume, and tree canopy, to identify localized structural determinants of firearm violence.

Results demonstrate that racial composition, economic hardship, and environmental stressors jointly predict spatial clustering of firearm injury, while local variable importance reveals that built environment features exert context-specific effects across neighborhoods. These findings highlight the value of spatially aware, data-driven approaches for informing equitable, place-based violence prevention and policy.

Abstract: Gun violence remains a critical public health crisis, particularly in urban centers like Chicago, where firearm-related injuries are among the highest in the nation. These injuries are not randomly distributed; they are spatially concentrated in neighborhoods shaped by structural inequality, including racial segregation, economic disinvestment, and environmental neglect. While random forest models have shown promise in predicting firearm violence and identifying neighborhood-level risk factors, conventional approaches often ignore spatial dependence, leading to biased estimates, inflated variable importance, and reduced geographic generalizability. This study applies spatially explicit machine learning to model non-fatal shootings across Chicago census tracts from 2020 to 2024. A curated set of predictors was compiled, including measures of social and environmental vulnerability, the built environment, and housing inequality. Three research questions guided the analysis: (1) Does incorporating spatial structure via Moran’s Eigenvector Maps (MEMs) in spatial random forests and spatially structured random effects in a Bayesian spatial model improve predictive accuracy compared to non-spatial models? (2) Which neighborhoods exhibit elevated firearm violence risk due to unmeasured spatial processes, as captured by spatial random effects? (3) Does prediction error vary across geographic space, revealing limits to model transferability? Findings suggest that the spatial random forest model outperformed the non-spatial model (pseudo R² = 0.98 vs. test R² = 0.50). Spatial cross-validation revealed geographic variation in accuracy (median nRMSE = 0.76), while spatial random effects from a Bayesian Poisson model identified unexplained latent risk. The enhanced predictive accuracy reveals hidden geographic risk patterns, suggesting that social, structural, and environmental factors can efficiently inform targeted violence prevention strategies.

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Beyond Urban–Rural Binaries: Remote Sensing Indicators of Built Environment Risk for Firearm Injury in Cook County, Illinois

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Presented at the 2025 National Research Conference for the Prevention of Firearm-Related Harms, this study develops a remote-sensing–based framework to identify built environment risk factors for firearm injury in Cook County, Illinois. Using satellite-derived indicators of nighttime light intensity, impervious surface coverage, vegetation (NDVI), and built-up density merged with firearm injury data from 2020–2024, we fit spatial random forest models and Bayesian spatial Poisson models to quantify environmental predictors of firearm harm.

Findings show that built environment characteristics—rather than traditional urban–rural categories—more accurately distinguish high-risk census tracts. High built-up intensity, fragmented greenness, and asymmetric nighttime activity remain strong predictors even after accounting for area-level deprivation. These results demonstrate the utility of remote sensing for identifying structural vulnerability and guiding place-based firearm injury prevention.

📄 Presentation

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Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Non-Fatal Self-Inflicted Firearm Injuries Among Adults in the United States, 2000-2021

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Plain-Language Summary

This study analyzes nonfatal, self-inflicted firearm injuries in the United States over a 22-year period (2000-2021) using the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS-FISS). Because structured database codes often fail to capture the context or intent behind a self-inflicted discharge, the research team used text mining and a machine learning (LASSO) classification model to analyze the unstructured clinical narratives written by emergency department staff.

The results show that while 58% of visits were likely unintentional discharges (accidents), 10% were probable suicide attempts. The narrative text mining revealed distinct, racially disparate patterns of injury: Non-Hispanic Black patients suffered the highest proportion of lower-extremity injuries (51%), while Hispanic patients had the highest rates of craniofacial injuries (26%) and a significant association with alcohol involvement (increasing from 12% in coded data to 20% in narrative data). This highlights the value of using natural language processing to analyze emergency department notes for better injury prevention and public health surveillance.

Development and Spatial Validation of a Random Forest Prediction Model for Firearm-Related Injury Risk in Chicago Census Tracts

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Plain-Language Summary

This study describes the development and validation of a machine learning model (random forest) to predict the risk of firearm-related injuries across Chicago neighborhoods. By combining multi-source data, including local crime reports, socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and environmental exposures, the model maps out areas with the highest predicted risk.

The model’s predictions were validated against actual administrative records to verify its spatial accuracy. This predictive modeling framework shows how machine learning can help public health officials and community organizations anticipate high-risk spatial hot spots and deploy community-based interventions more effectively.