Chicago

Spatial random forest model predicting firearm violence risk across Chicago neighborhoods

A complete walkthrough for downloading, importing, and querying the 2024 HMDA Modified LAR dataset in PostgreSQL — covering table creation, bulk import, and spatial analysis of lending disparities in Chicago.

This study describes the development and validation of a machine learning model (random forest) to predict the risk of firearm-related injuries across Chicago neighborhoods. By combining multi-source data, including local crime reports, socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and environmental exposures, the model maps out areas with the highest predicted risk. The model’s predictions were validated against actual administrative records to verify its spatial accuracy. This predictive modeling framework shows how machine learning can help public health officials and community organizations anticipate high-risk spatial hot spots and deploy community-based interventions more effectively.

This study explores the associations between developed open space, tree canopy, blue space, and land cover diversity and suicide risk across Chicago neighborhoods. Using Bayesian spatial Poisson models at the Census Block Group level, the research reveals a land cover paradox: while developed open spaces and blue spaces are associated with lower suicide rates overall, the protective effects are context-dependent and are not uniformly experienced across urban neighborhoods. The findings emphasize that suicide prevention efforts should incorporate neighborhood-level environmental factors and structural disadvantages rather than focusing solely on individual risk profiles.

This study evaluates the exposure of school children to gun violence along their walkable routes to and from school in Englewood, Chicago. Using acoustic sensor detection technology (ShotSpotter) alongside realistic network routing models, the research quantifies both direct and indirect gunfire exposure during daily school commutes. The findings show that children walking to school face frequent and geographically concentrated gunfire exposure, which varies significantly depending on specific walking routes and neighborhood social vulnerability. This work demonstrates the power of integrating spatial routing algorithms with acoustic gunshot data to guide school safety policies, active transit planning, and targeted community policing.