Taylor Harrington | ISSUES | The Ohio State University

Modeling Firearm Injury Risk Using Spatial Random Forests

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Our presentation, Modeling Firearm Injury Risk Using Spatial Random Forests, will be delivered by Dr. Gia Barboza-Salerno at the Women in Statistics and Data Science on November 12, 2025 in Cincinnati, OH.

This study introduces a spatial machine learning framework for predicting firearm injury risk across Chicago census tracts. Using Spatial Random Forest Modeling (SRFM), we integrate social, built, and natural environment indicators, such as social vulnerability, housing burden, green space, traffic volume, and tree canopy, to identify localized structural determinants of firearm violence.

Results demonstrate that racial composition, economic hardship, and environmental stressors jointly predict spatial clustering of firearm injury, while local variable importance reveals that built environment features exert context-specific effects across neighborhoods. These findings highlight the value of spatially aware, data-driven approaches for informing equitable, place-based violence prevention and policy.

Abstract: Gun violence remains a critical public health crisis, particularly in urban centers like Chicago, where firearm-related injuries are among the highest in the nation. These injuries are not randomly distributed; they are spatially concentrated in neighborhoods shaped by structural inequality, including racial segregation, economic disinvestment, and environmental neglect. While random forest models have shown promise in predicting firearm violence and identifying neighborhood-level risk factors, conventional approaches often ignore spatial dependence, leading to biased estimates, inflated variable importance, and reduced geographic generalizability. This study applies spatially explicit machine learning to model non-fatal shootings across Chicago census tracts from 2020 to 2024. A curated set of predictors was compiled, including measures of social and environmental vulnerability, the built environment, and housing inequality. Three research questions guided the analysis: (1) Does incorporating spatial structure via Moran’s Eigenvector Maps (MEMs) in spatial random forests and spatially structured random effects in a Bayesian spatial model improve predictive accuracy compared to non-spatial models? (2) Which neighborhoods exhibit elevated firearm violence risk due to unmeasured spatial processes, as captured by spatial random effects? (3) Does prediction error vary across geographic space, revealing limits to model transferability? Findings suggest that the spatial random forest model outperformed the non-spatial model (pseudo R² = 0.98 vs. test R² = 0.50). Spatial cross-validation revealed geographic variation in accuracy (median nRMSE = 0.76), while spatial random effects from a Bayesian Poisson model identified unexplained latent risk. The enhanced predictive accuracy reveals hidden geographic risk patterns, suggesting that social, structural, and environmental factors can efficiently inform targeted violence prevention strategies.

Download the presentation here .

Enhancing Brain Injury Surveillance Using Large Language Models and Topic Modeling

Sun, 19 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Our presentation, Enhancing Brain Injury Surveillance Using Large Language Models and Topic Modeling, was delivered by Dr. Shockley McCarthy at the AI for BI Conference at The Ohio State University on October 17, 2025.

This work introduces an AI-driven framework for improving the detection and contextual understanding of brain injury cases using unstructured medical and administrative text. By applying large language models (LLMs) and structured topic modeling, we extract interpretable patterns from injury narratives and ICD-coded data to identify mechanisms of injury, intent, and underreported cases of intimate partner violence (IPV)–related brain injury.

Integrating methods from public health, law, and computational linguistics, our approach aims to enhance the precision of injury surveillance systems and inform equitable prevention and policy strategies addressing violence-related traumatic brain injury (TBI).

Download the presentation here .

Taylor Harrington

Wed, 04 Nov 2026 10:45:00 +0000

Taylor Harrington, MS, is a PhD candidate in Public Health at The Ohio State University. Her research uses social determinants of health frameworks to understand the complex, multilevel drivers of health disparities. Her work focuses on the intersection of substance use, intimate partner violence, and mental health as key contributors to health risks and outcomes.

To investigate how these factors shape health behaviors and outcomes, she integrates advanced computational and geospatial methods, including machine learning (e.g., computer vision, random forests, structured topic modeling, text mining) and geospatial modeling (e.g., Bayesian spatial modeling, remote sensing). Through this work, she aims to generate actionable evidence to inform equitable health policy and community-level interventions.

Awards and honors

Master’s in Psychology Student Excellence Award, Mercy University, 2023

An assessment of opioid overdose mortality risk across the urban–rural continuum: Integrating satellite-derived and socioeconomic indicators

Wed, 04 Nov 2026 10:45:00 +0000

Session: Built environment and community-based approaches to advancing health equity
Program: Public Health Education and Health Promotion
Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | 10:45 AM – 11:00 AM

Extreme heat and suicide risk among older adults: A longitudinal time-series analysis in an urban U.S. setting

Mon, 02 Nov 2026 12:30:00 +0000

Session: Climate, Culture, and Life-Course Contexts in Mental Health
Program: Mental Health
Date: Monday, November 2, 2026 | 12:30 PM – 1:30 PM

New Publication: Profiles of Stressful Life Experiences in Pregnancy

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

We are excited to announce a new publication from the ISSUES Lab!

Profiles of stressful life experiences in pregnancy: a latent class approach linking early childhood adversity, intimate partner coercive control, and material hardship to adverse birth outcomes

Gia Elise Barboza-Salerno & Taylor Harrington

Published August 31, 2026 in BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth (Open Access)

Abstract

Acute antenatal stressful life events (SLEs) during pregnancy are well-established risk factors for adverse birth outcomes. However, little is known about how distinct constellations of antenatal SLEs, shaped by early adversity, material hardship, and intimate partner coercive control, combine to influence perinatal health.

Data were drawn from 5,280 participants in the Kansas Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System. Using latent class analysis, five distinct stress profiles were identified:

Family Member Illness and Death (16.3%)
Multiple Overlapping Stressors (5.2%)
Financial Insecurity (11.2%)
Residential Instability and Family Conflict (8.7%)
Low Stress (58.6%)

Compared with the Low Stress class, individuals in all high-risk classes had significantly higher odds of reporting ACEs, IPV, material hardship, and cigarette use before pregnancy. The Multiple Overlapping Stressors class showed the greatest risk of low birth weight, small for gestational age, and preterm birth.

Key Takeaway

Tailoring perinatal interventions to specific SLE profiles, particularly for individuals with histories of ACEs and IPV, may reduce poor birth outcomes.

Download PDF | View Publication

Profiles of stressful life experiences in pregnancy: a latent class approach linking early childhood adversity, intimate partner coercive control, and material hardship to adverse birth outcomes

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Non-Fatal Self-Inflicted Firearm Injuries Among Adults in the United States, 2000-2021

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Plain-Language Summary

This study analyzes nonfatal, self-inflicted firearm injuries in the United States over a 22-year period (2000-2021) using the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS-FISS). Because structured database codes often fail to capture the context or intent behind a self-inflicted discharge, the research team used text mining and a machine learning (LASSO) classification model to analyze the unstructured clinical narratives written by emergency department staff.

The results show that while 58% of visits were likely unintentional discharges (accidents), 10% were probable suicide attempts. The narrative text mining revealed distinct, racially disparate patterns of injury: Non-Hispanic Black patients suffered the highest proportion of lower-extremity injuries (51%), while Hispanic patients had the highest rates of craniofacial injuries (26%) and a significant association with alcohol involvement (increasing from 12% in coded data to 20% in narrative data). This highlights the value of using natural language processing to analyze emergency department notes for better injury prevention and public health surveillance.

New Publication: Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Non-Fatal Self-Inflicted Firearm Injuries

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Nonfatal self-inflicted firearm injuries represent an important and understudied public health concern in the United States. We analyzed nationally representative data from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System–Firearm Injury Surveillance Study (NEISS-FISS), 2000–2021, to characterize nonfatal self-inflicted firearm injuries among U.S. adults aged 18–64 years. Emergency department (ED) narratives were combined using text mining and an elastic net (LASSO) classification model to augment structured surveillance data. Among 7,362 unweighted cases (representing approximately 260,602 ED visits, 58% were classified as probable unintentional discharges, whereas approximately 10% were probable suicide attempts. Among cases with complete race and ethnicity data, Non-Hispanic White (NHW; 69.2%), Non-Hispanic Black (NHB; 23.2%), and Hispanic (7.6%) individuals comprised the primary analytic groups. Narrative analysis substantially increased detection of contextual factors, particularly alcohol involvement among Hispanic patients (12.0% to 20.1%). NHB patients had the highest proportion of lower-extremity injuries (51%), while Hispanic patients had the highest prevalence of craniofacial injuries (26%). The LASSO model effectively distinguished terms associated with probable suicide attempts from unintentional firearm discharges based on narrative language. Findings highlight limitations of structured intent coding within NEISS-FISS and demonstrate the value of narrative for improving characterization of firearm injury circumstances, revealing distinct racial and ethnic group patterns, to inform more tailored prevention strategies.

Plain-Language Summary

Congratulations to Hexin Yang and Taylor Harrington who have recently become PhD candidates

Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Congratulations to Hexin Yang and Taylor Harrington who have recently become PhD candidates! We look forward to their continued research contributions.

Ohio Recovery Housing Conference 2026

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 13:00:00 +0000

Dr. Keith Warren, Dr. Gia Barboza-Salerno, and Taylor Harrington will present at the 2026 Ohio Recovery Housing Conference during Breakout Session D (1:00 - 2:15 PM) on Wednesday, April 15, 2026.

This presentation will share findings from the lab’s ongoing research on recovery housing, examining the role of recovery housing in supporting individuals with substance use disorder, particularly in underserved and high-risk communities.

Conference Details:

Date: April 15, 2026
Time: 1:00 - 2:15 PM
Session: Breakout Session D
Registration: Register here
Full Schedule: View conference agenda

IPR Seminar Series: Accessibility to Abortion Services, Maternal Vulnerability, and Birth Outcomes

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 12:30:00 +0000

Dr. Gia Barboza-Salerno will present at the Institute for Population Research (IPR) Seminar Series on Tuesday, March 10, 2026.

Presentation Details

Title: Accessibility to Abortion Services, Maternal Vulnerability, and Birth Outcomes

Date: Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Time: 12:30 - 1:30 PM
Location: Townshend Hall, room 038, 1885 Neil Ave Mall and Zoom

Registration: Register for Zoom access

Abstract

Does spatial accessibility to abortion care intersect with maternal vulnerability to shape adverse birth outcomes? In the post-Dobbs landscape, access to abortion services has become increasingly uneven, with substantial geographic barriers emerging across large portions of the state. This study examines whether spatial constraints on abortion access align with community-level maternal vulnerability and how these structural conditions are associated with adverse birth outcomes.

The study uses a novel Maternal Vulnerability Index (MVI), a validated, census-tract-level measure that captures multidimensional drivers of poor maternal health, including:

Healthcare access
Reproductive health resources
Physical and mental health
Environmental conditions
Socioeconomic disadvantage

Geographic information systems (GIS) and multimodal transportation network modeling are used to quantify travel burden, service deserts, and spatial accessibility to abortion. These spatial access measures are then linked to adverse birth outcomes (e.g., preterm birth), to assess whether communities facing greater abortion access constraints experience elevated perinatal risk.

By situating abortion accessibility within a comprehensive measure of maternal vulnerability, this study highlights how geographic and structural inequities in reproductive healthcare access may contribute to persistent disparities in maternal and infant health.

Emotional and Physical Symptoms Following Intimate Partner Violence Victimization in the United States: Implications for Law and Public Health Policy

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Development and Spatial Validation of a Random Forest Prediction Model for Firearm-Related Injury Risk in Chicago Census Tracts

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Presentation at Women in Statistics and Data Science Conference

Our presentation, Modeling Firearm Injury Risk Using Spatial Random Forests, was delivered by Dr. Gia Barboza-Salerno at the Women in Statistics and Data Science on November 12, 2025 in Cincinnati, OH.

Abstract

This research develops and validates a spatial random forest prediction model for firearm-related injury risk at the census tract level in Chicago. By incorporating spatial autocorrelation and neighborhood-level predictors, the model achieves high predictive accuracy in identifying areas at elevated risk for gun violence.

Methodology

Spatial Random Forest Approach

The spatial random forest model extends traditional random forest methods by:

Capturing Non-Linear Relationships: Modeling complex interactions between neighborhood characteristics and shooting risk
Handling Spatial Autocorrelation: Incorporating spatial structure through lag variables
Variable Importance: Identifying which neighborhood features are most predictive
Robust Predictions: Providing out-of-sample risk estimates

Data Sources

Shooting incident data from Chicago
Census tract-level socioeconomic indicators
Built environment features
Spatial lag variables to capture spillover effects

Model Validation

Cross-validation for predictive performance assessment
Spatial autocorrelation diagnostics
Comparison with traditional regression approaches

Key Findings

The predicted shooting risk map (shown above) demonstrates:

High Spatial Variation: Risk scores range from 0 to over 80 predicted incidents
Concentrated Risk: Certain neighborhoods show elevated firearm violence risk
Model Accuracy: Spatial random forest successfully captures fine-grained risk patterns
Spatial Clustering: Violence risk exhibits significant spatial autocorrelation

Applications

This spatial prediction model has important applications for:

Resource Allocation: Targeting violence prevention resources to high-risk areas
Prevention Planning: Understanding neighborhood-level drivers of gun violence
Policy Evaluation: Assessing how neighborhood changes affect violence risk
Early Warning: Detecting emerging hotspots before violence escalates

Implications

The research demonstrates that spatial random forest models can:

Improve prediction of firearm violence risk beyond traditional methods
Identify actionable neighborhood-level intervention targets
Account for complex spatial dependencies in violence patterns
Support evidence-based violence prevention strategies

Conference: Women in Statistics and Data Science Conference
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Date: October 1-3, 2025
Authors: Gia Barboza-Salerno, Hexin Yang, Taylor Harrington

Intimate Partner Violence & Brain Injury in U.S. Adults: Findings from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2021

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Overview

National survey data show that adults who screen positive for intimate partner violence (IPV) experience more injuries and face greater medical costs than those who do not. Nine million screened IPV-positive using the HITS screening tool, and survivors were significantly more likely to utilize emergency rooms and hospitals for treating their injuries. Head and brain injuries were much more frequent among IPV survivors, and the average cost of treating these injuries was nearly twice as high compared to adults who did not screen positive for IPV.

Key Messages

Approximately 9 million adults screened positive for IPV in 2021.
IPV-positive adults had 3–4× higher ER and inpatient injury rates than IPV-negative adults.
Adults who screened positive for IPV experienced more than twice the rate of brain-injury healthcare events compared to those who screened negative.
Average per-capita spending on brain-injury care was about twice as high among IPV-positive adults.
Inpatient TBI events are less common than ER events but far more costly; counts and spending are higher among IPV-positive adults.
Poverty, social stressors, depression, and chronic conditions are significantly associated with IPV screen positivity.

Policy Relevance & Recommendations

Standardized protocols: Implement routine protocols so that IPV-positive patients with head injury are screened for brain injury, and patients with head injury are also screened for IPV.
Integrated referral pathways: Establish clear referral systems across emergency, primary, and specialty care so that when screening protocols are triggered, patients are automatically connected to appropriate follow-up services.
Follow-up for delayed symptoms: Incorporate temporal follow-up in care plans, recognizing that brain injury symptoms may appear or worsen over time.
Accessibility and appropriateness: Ensure screening and follow-up services are accessible, widely available, and tailored to the needs of IPV survivors.
Holistic screening: Extend screening beyond identifying head injury to include social and health needs that may magnify injury effects and increase vulnerability to future IPV.
Care coordination: Utilize medical social workers and interdisciplinary teams to integrate medical, psychosocial, and safety needs into a comprehensive care response.

Methodology

This brief analyzes nationally representative data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey—Household Component (MEPS-HC) 2021. Adults (age ≥18) were classified as IPV screen-positive if they scored ≥10 on the Hurt, Insult, Threaten, Scream (HITS) scale, a validated four-item screening tool for intimate partner violence.

Injury outcomes were identified using ICD-10-CM codes and Clinical Classifications Software Refined (CCSR) groupings from the MEPS Conditions file, with condition–event linkages used to assign emergency department (ER), inpatient, outpatient, office-based, home health, and prescription care to specific injuries. Brain injuries were defined as traumatic brain injury (ICD-10 S06) and other head injuries (S00–S09).

We estimated:

Injury and brain-injury events per 100 adults,
Per-capita spending (in 2021 USD), and
Weighted counts of injury-linked encounters.

Analyses applied MEPS survey weights (PERWT21F) and accounted for the complex design (VARSTR, VARPSU). We used survey-weighted generalized linear models (svyglm) to generate adjusted comparisons standardized over age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Risk ratios were estimated for sociodemographic factors, health-related social needs, and chronic health conditions associated with IPV screen positivity.

Suggested Citation

Barboza-Salerno, G. E., Shockley McCarthy, K., Watson-Grace, A., Harrington, T., McCarthy, M. A., Peremen, N., & McLucas, O. (2025). Intimate Partner Violence & Brain Injury in U.S. Adults: Findings from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2021. Policy brief. The Ohio State University, ISSUE Lab (Investigating Spatial Structures in Urban Environments).